We’re in uncharted waters at the semifinals of the 2025 IIHF Ice Hockey World Championship. Denmark is playing in the medal games for the first time ever, Switzerland seeks a first-ever gold while the USA wants to end its final four hoodoo. That should make host nation and 11-time champion Sweden the red hot favourite. But in a tournament where little has gone to script on the ice, predictions are only for the brave.

Three crowns or Stars & Stripes

Sweden vs USA, Saturday, 1420 CEST

There used to be a time when the host teams simply couldn’t win the Ice Hockey World Championship. The “home-ice curse” was alive and well for almost 30 years, until 2013, when it was busted by, that’s right, Sweden, in, yup, the Avicii Arena. 

Few people would be shocked to see Tre Kronor line up for gold medals again. The hosts have been impressive in the tournament so far, losing only once on their way to the semifinal.

Coach Sam Hallam has a welcome problem as Sweden has an embarrassment of riches on offence. When your third line has players such as Mika Zibanejad, Leo Carlsson, and Marcus Johansson, you have a deep team. Unsurprisingly, scoring hasn’t been a problem for Sweden. Then again, defence seems to be working, too.  The team has posted a respectable 33-10 goal difference in eight games. 

Goaltender Jacob Markstrom has a 1.63 GAA in the five games he’s played in the tournament. 

And now Sweden has added the 2017 IIHF Ice Hockey World Championship MVP William Nylander. He didn’t seem to have too much trouble sliding into the lineup, even though he left the ice pointless in the quarterfinal against Czechia.

“Some of us have played together a little in the past and I think the chemistry’s still there,” he told Swedish public broadcaster SVT.

However, Team USA has scored even more goals than Sweden – 39 in the tournament – and is just now hitting its stride. 

“The big ice surface is a bit of a challenge, there’s more room for guys to make plays especially on the power play, but we’re starting to figure it out,” defender Alex Vlasic said after the quarterfinal game against Finland. 

In that quarterfinal, the Americans showed that they, too, can be patient and opportunistic.  Team USA has won only – “only” – five bronze medals since 2000, and to find their last gold (in the top division), well, you’ll have to scroll down all the way to 1933. Of course, USA won Olympic gold in 1960 and 1980 when the tournament doubled as a world championship. 

The 1933 tournament in Prague, Czechoslovakia, isn’t just the last standalone gold they won. It’s the only one. 

“Whenever you represent your country, you try to play for the gold medal. Every game will be intense and physical. We’ll put our best foot forward whoever we play,” Team USA forward Conor Garland said after the game against Finland. 

Now they know. It’ll be USA vs Sweden. 

“The last couple of games have proved that we keep up with anybody. We have the belief in the locker room. I don't think we've hit our full potential yet,” Vlasic said.

They’ll be faced with a talented Swedish team, and the yellow wall of home fans all dressed up in their favorite team’s jerseys, but if the Americans hit their full potential, of course they can win. 

We’ve seen much bigger upsets. Even in this tournament. 

Danes want first medal, Swiss dream of first gold

Switzerland vs Denmark, Saturday, 1820 CEST

This wasn’t meant to be the match-up. Denmark’s role as co-host was supposed to be welcoming the world back to Herning, battling for a quarterfinal spot and putting up a good show against a powerhouse in the playoffs.

But, for the likes of Nikolaj Ehlers, Frederik Dichow or the tireless Lauridsen brothers, that wasn’t much of a story. They tore up the script, reeling off four straight wins to go from eighth to fourth in Group B via a winner-takes-all shoot-out against Germany. Then came a sensational victory over Canada. A team that slumped to three straight losses at the start of the tournament rebounded in style. Suddenly, Denmark is in love with hockey – and is dreaming of a first-ever IIHF Ice Hockey World Championship medal.

A couple of reality checks. First, Switzerland already enjoyed a handy 5-2 win over the Danes in the preliminary round. Yes, Denmark has added players and improved since the opening weekend, but so has Switzerland. In addition, the Danish fairytale played out on home ice in Herning. Now, the team is off to Stockholm for the conclusion – a new environment, and a less hospitable one for Mikael Gath’s team.

Not that captain Jesper Jensen Aabo is sweating on these details. “I know the Danish people will do everything they can to show up and support us [in Stockholm],” he said. “We just have to keep the adrenaline going and just believe in it. We have a great feeling, we have five wins in a row. So why not? We’ve beaten the Swiss before.”

Switzerland, too, is making history. This is the first time since 1953 that the country is set for a top-four finish at back-to-back World Championships. A year ago, the Swiss lost out to Czechia in Prague. There are also happy memories of Sweden: in 2013 Stockholm saw Switzerland enjoy nine successive wins to get to the final and secure its first medal since 1953. Sweden halted that Alpine bandwagon; could this be the year Patrick Fischer and his team land a first ever Swiss gold?

The signs are promising. Switzerland started solidly despite going down in overtime against the Czechs. Then came win after win – with a shut-out success against the USA standing out as the Swiss topped Group B. The defence has been almost impregnable since that 4-5 OT loss to Czechia. The next seven games brought four shut-outs, and just four goals allowed. Leonardo Genoni continues to impress, stopping 93.55% of shots faced.

On the other side of the puck, this is a dangerous outfit. The loss of captain Nico Hischier to injury in game three has barely caused a ripple: Tyler Moy is up to 11 (3+8) points in the tournament, Sven Andrighetto hit a purple patch at the perfect time, helped by Denis Malgin’s regular assists. Timo Meier and Kevin Fiala have contributed strongly, but most of all, Switzerland functions as a team. Roles are clearly defined, and personnel changes knock nobody off his stride. Last time in Stockholm, the Swiss just missed out on ruling the Globen; this year, in the Avicii Arena, they believe they can be champions of the world.