In the 2025 World Junior semi-finals, Finland's Daniel Nieminen (#7) and his teammates edged Sweden 4-3 in overtime. Who will prevail in the 2026 rematch?
photo: © INTERNATIONAL ICE HOCKEY FEDERATION / ANDRE RINGUETTE
In North America, hockey players often say: “It’s a game of inches.” But when it comes to Sweden and Finland, the two combatants in Sunday’s early IIHF World Junior Championship semi-final, you might more accurately say (with due respect for the metric system): “It’s a game of millimetres.”
Yes, it's that tight.
Proof? The last nine World Junior meetings between these Nordic neighbours – dating back to Finland’s 2-1 semi-final win in Helsinki on 4 January 2016 – have been decided by one goal. Sweden has a head-to-head advantage of five wins and four losses in that span. But the Finns have won four out of the last five meetings going back to 2021, including (notably) last year's 4-3 semi-final victory in overtime in Ottawa.
Oh yeah, and the all-time record since the inaugural 1977 World Juniors is narrowly in Sweden’s favour: 21 wins, two ties, and 20 losses. We could go on in this vein.
But how about the here and now? The Finns are coming off a nail-biting 4-3 quarter-final OT win over the defending champion Americans, while unbeaten Sweden easily doubled Latvia 6-3.
In net, the Finns likely have a slight edge based on experience with Petteri Rimpinen. The 19-year-old – named Best Goalie in 2025 – backstopped Finland to last year’s final, a 4-3 OT loss to the Americans. Meanwhile, talented 18-year-old Swedish starter Love Harenstam is competing in his first World Juniors.
Harenstam’s raw numbers are a little better so far (2.50 GAA, 90.2 save percentage) than Rimpinen’s (2.57 GAA, 87.6 save percentage). But if (and it’s a choice) you toss out the run-and-gun craziness of Canada’s 7-4 win over Finland and note that Rimpinen just allowed the same number of goals (three) against the Americans with star defenceman Cole Hutson as Harenstam did versus a Hutson-less U.S. on New Year’s Eve, it evens things out.
Swedish coach Magnus Havelid can ice a more high-class blue line with the likes of Alfons Freij (seven assists), Leo Sahlin Wallennius (six points), and Sascha Boumedienne (team average ice time leader at 20:59 per game). However, Finnish captain Aron Kiviharju appears to be channeling his inner “ice general” at just the right time, leading the way against the Americans and evoking Kimmo Timonen nostalgia. The Finnish D-men are battle-hardened shot-blockers, and Lasse Boelius quietly leads them in production with six points to date.
Kiviharju spoke about his team’s mentality for the semi-finals and beyond: “Continue working shift by shift, period by period, and that’s it. We’re kind of having a best-of-one mindset now coming into these games. I think we did that really well tonight. We were patient.”
Forwards-wise, the Swedes have been a bit more explosive. Take one-timer virtuoso Anton Frondell (five goals) and Lucas Pettersson (four goals, including two game-winners). Returning Finnish veterans like Emil Hemming (three goals) and Julius Miettinen (one goal) still have another level to reach under coach Lauri Mikkola. Still, the Finns are getting timely scoring up and down the lineup. Look no further than, say, undrafted forward Leo Tuuva, whose goal and assist helped Finland build a 3-2 lead on the Americans.
Finland is best-advised to try to win this semi-final at even strength. The Swedes have definitely been more lethal on the power play (9-for-20, 45 percent) than the Finns (4-for-15, 26.7 percent).
Havelid sees no reason for Sweden to get cocky, though: “We are like an underdog, so we’re going after someone. We just have two golds [in 1981 and 2012], but it’s time for number three! You don’t worry about who you play in the semi-final. You must just focus on your game, relax a little bit in a good way, and take the opportunity you have in about 60 minutes.”
Bottom line: the Swedes look better on paper. The Finns may have the edge in intangibles, especially having faced more adversity en route to the final four. If the Finns burned up too much emotional energy in their quarter-final, that could favour Sweden. But knocking off the Americans could equally well serve as the rocket fuel that propels Suomi to its first World Junior gold medal since Kaapo Kakko stunned the U.S. with his late 3-2 winner in Vancouver in 2019.
Get ready for a “game of millimetres.”
Yes, it's that tight.
Proof? The last nine World Junior meetings between these Nordic neighbours – dating back to Finland’s 2-1 semi-final win in Helsinki on 4 January 2016 – have been decided by one goal. Sweden has a head-to-head advantage of five wins and four losses in that span. But the Finns have won four out of the last five meetings going back to 2021, including (notably) last year's 4-3 semi-final victory in overtime in Ottawa.
Oh yeah, and the all-time record since the inaugural 1977 World Juniors is narrowly in Sweden’s favour: 21 wins, two ties, and 20 losses. We could go on in this vein.
But how about the here and now? The Finns are coming off a nail-biting 4-3 quarter-final OT win over the defending champion Americans, while unbeaten Sweden easily doubled Latvia 6-3.
In net, the Finns likely have a slight edge based on experience with Petteri Rimpinen. The 19-year-old – named Best Goalie in 2025 – backstopped Finland to last year’s final, a 4-3 OT loss to the Americans. Meanwhile, talented 18-year-old Swedish starter Love Harenstam is competing in his first World Juniors.
Harenstam’s raw numbers are a little better so far (2.50 GAA, 90.2 save percentage) than Rimpinen’s (2.57 GAA, 87.6 save percentage). But if (and it’s a choice) you toss out the run-and-gun craziness of Canada’s 7-4 win over Finland and note that Rimpinen just allowed the same number of goals (three) against the Americans with star defenceman Cole Hutson as Harenstam did versus a Hutson-less U.S. on New Year’s Eve, it evens things out.
Swedish coach Magnus Havelid can ice a more high-class blue line with the likes of Alfons Freij (seven assists), Leo Sahlin Wallennius (six points), and Sascha Boumedienne (team average ice time leader at 20:59 per game). However, Finnish captain Aron Kiviharju appears to be channeling his inner “ice general” at just the right time, leading the way against the Americans and evoking Kimmo Timonen nostalgia. The Finnish D-men are battle-hardened shot-blockers, and Lasse Boelius quietly leads them in production with six points to date.
Kiviharju spoke about his team’s mentality for the semi-finals and beyond: “Continue working shift by shift, period by period, and that’s it. We’re kind of having a best-of-one mindset now coming into these games. I think we did that really well tonight. We were patient.”
Forwards-wise, the Swedes have been a bit more explosive. Take one-timer virtuoso Anton Frondell (five goals) and Lucas Pettersson (four goals, including two game-winners). Returning Finnish veterans like Emil Hemming (three goals) and Julius Miettinen (one goal) still have another level to reach under coach Lauri Mikkola. Still, the Finns are getting timely scoring up and down the lineup. Look no further than, say, undrafted forward Leo Tuuva, whose goal and assist helped Finland build a 3-2 lead on the Americans.
Finland is best-advised to try to win this semi-final at even strength. The Swedes have definitely been more lethal on the power play (9-for-20, 45 percent) than the Finns (4-for-15, 26.7 percent).
Havelid sees no reason for Sweden to get cocky, though: “We are like an underdog, so we’re going after someone. We just have two golds [in 1981 and 2012], but it’s time for number three! You don’t worry about who you play in the semi-final. You must just focus on your game, relax a little bit in a good way, and take the opportunity you have in about 60 minutes.”
Bottom line: the Swedes look better on paper. The Finns may have the edge in intangibles, especially having faced more adversity en route to the final four. If the Finns burned up too much emotional energy in their quarter-final, that could favour Sweden. But knocking off the Americans could equally well serve as the rocket fuel that propels Suomi to its first World Junior gold medal since Kaapo Kakko stunned the U.S. with his late 3-2 winner in Vancouver in 2019.
Get ready for a “game of millimetres.”